Three NFL Week 6 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 6 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 6 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

October 11, 2023 – by Jason Lisk

The Patriots are coming off two of the worst games ever under Belichick (Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Hitting an NFL Week 6 upset pick that the public didn’t see coming isn’t just about bragging rights. Historically, NFL underdogs tend to offer more fertile hunting grounds for betting value than favorites do.

Thus begins our quest to identify which underdogs will have what it takes in NFL Week 6. In this article, we make our three favorite Week 6 upset picks based on moneyline odds, or the relative payout you’d get if you bet on the underdog to win the game outright.

Some of these upset picks will be close to coin-flip propositions, while others may be long shots that we expect to lose much more often than they win. (See the end of this article for important notes on expectations.)

The unifying theme is a belief that these picks are all sensible gambles from a risk vs. reward standpoint, and will prove to be profitable bets over the long run.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 2-1 for +2.1 units2023 Season: 4-11 for -5.5 units

We finally got a winning week with multiple upset picks hitting. (FYI, all 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

Jacksonville (+215), after staying the week in London, jumped on Buffalo early and held on to win 25-20, for our biggest return of the season so far.Las Vegas (-105) was the betting underdog last Wednesday, but moved to a 2.5-point favorite by Monday kickoff, and won 17-13 as the turnover fortunes of the two teams shifted.Minnesota (+179) held KC to 333 total yards, but an early fumble on the opening drive gave the Chiefs the lead, and the Vikings couldn’t quite get it done, losing 27-20.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 6, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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Week 6 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

New England Patriots (at Las Vegas Raiders)

Moneyline: +148Point Spread: +3.0

This is currently our top playable moneyline underdog pick and a playable point spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

New England was shut out last week at home in embarrassing fashion, 34-0 to New Orleans. After a promising Week 1, QB Mac Jones’ job is potentially in jeopardy after New England has put up two of its worst-ever performances with Bill Belichick as head coach.

The NFL, however, is the “any given Sunday” league. Since the start of the 2013 season (the last decade), teams that were shut out the week before and were an underdog the following week have gone 23-10-1 ATS over that span. They were also profitable moneyline bets overall despite being 11-23 SU, since several were bigger underdogs.

In addition, the Patriots have suffered from bad luck. They rank dead last in our adjusted turnover metric, which looks not only at turnovers but also turnovers on downs and missed field goals. (They are near the bottom in turnovers, have converted only two-of-10 fourth down attempts, and made only four of their eight field goal attempts so far this season.)

So there should be some positive regression coming New England’s way at some point, and this week they face Belichick’s former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. We’ve already seen McDaniels make several head-scratching decisions late in games this year, and the Raiders aren’t exactly the type of team that avoids mistakes either.

Washington Commanders (at Atlanta Falcons)

Moneyline: +119Point Spread: +2.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Washington has been a Jekyll-and-Hyde team this year. The Commanders are coming off an embarrassing performance, especially for the defense, where they allowed Chicago to score 40 points and Chicago WR D.J. Moore to have over 200 yards receiving and three touchdowns. As a result, Washington now ranks 31st in points allowed.

But the Commanders now play an Atlanta team that has not been very explosive and is not an aggressive passing team. Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder only has four passing TDs so far this year, and none longer than 15 yards. Two of them were basically short passes behind the line to RB Bijan Robinson.

So we’ll play on the better offense against a team that has yet to show consistency on that side of the ball, and for Washington’s defense to show a little better than their recent effort.

Chicago Bears (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

Moneyline: +125Point Spread: +2.5

This is not a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, but is playable based on our Decision Tree Model, and as a situational fade of our Predictive Ratings Model.

(This year, when an underdog moneyline pick is rated at -10.0% or lower by our Predictive Ratings Model, they are 10-8 SU for +11.55 units, and this pick qualifies.)

So the question is, why might fading our predictive ratings expectation in this case make sense, vs. that positive record just being randomness at work?

In short, our predictive ratings do a good job overall of identifying what a line should be, without any outside info. But when player injuries or other extraordinary factors cause a line to move, it can lead to a ratings based prediction that is far off the betting market, and serve as an indicator of a higher variance situation, which is good for underdogs.

In this case, Minnesota just lost star wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who was placed on IR. Jefferson is one of the most valuable wide receivers in the NFL (perhaps THE most valuable WR) and is a notable loss to the Vikings’ passing production.

Chicago, meanwhile, has seen a big step up on offense recently. QB Justin Fields has thrown for over 300 yards per game and thrown 8 total TD passes the last two weeks, after starting poorly.

So you have one passing offense that is likely to be worse than its season performance so far, in the first game without a star WR, versus another offense that could be much better than its season average so far.

Finally, this is the type of series (an indoor dome team vs. a team that plays on grass in a colder/windier location) that shows higher home field advantage.

Since 2002, when the NFC North became a division, the home team in this series is 30-12 SU and 26-15-1 ATS. That includes 14-7 ATS advantage for Chicago at Soldier Field against the Vikings.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Picks To Date

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BAL	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes

NFL Week 6 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 6 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 6 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.

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