Three NFL Week 16 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)
These NFL Week 16 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.
December 21, 2022 – by Jason Lisk
Carolina will try to bounce back and end the Lions’ run (John Byrum/Icon Sportswire)
Everyone loves an underdog, and hitting that upset pick that others did not see coming.
In this article, we pick three NFL Week 16 underdogs to win outright. We also keep track of our overall season performance, using the moneyline odds for each pick at publication time.
Last season, upset picks we highlighted in this column went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.
(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)
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Upset Picks Results to Date
Last Week: 1-2 for -0.2 units2022 Season: 18-26-1 for +5.4 units
New York Giants (+184) beat Washington, 20-12.Tennessee (+138) lost on a late FG, 17-14.Tampa Bay (+168) lost 34-23 as Tom Brady had 4 turnovers.
Week 16 NFL Upset Picks
Carolina Panthers (vs. Detroit Lions)
Moneyline: +125Point Spread: +2.5
This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model. The Lions are also extremely popular pick in our public pick data for football pools (89% in game winner, 80% in spread pools) and are likely to be a publicly popular side this week.
Detroit has rolled to into this game winning six of the last seven games, and is suddenly back in playoff contention, trailing Washington by only a half-game entering the week. They are a road favorite for the first time since 2020, which also happened to be at Carolina (a 20-0 loss).
But it’s not like Carolina isn’t showing signs of improvement either; the Panthers are 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS with Steve Wilks at interim coach. The pass defense has been really good over that span, and has held four of the last five opponents under 200 net yards passing.
Detroit has had only three turnovers in the current seven-game run (compared to 12 by their opponents). The defense has played a little better, but still ranks 31st in yards allowed. So this is a strength-on-strength (Carolina Pass D vs. Detroit Pass O) and weakness-on-weakness (Carolina O vs. Detroit D) game.
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Denver Broncos)
Moneyline: +120Point Spread: +2.5
This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
It’s a bit of a hold-your-nose game, as both offenses have been bad. Denver might have Russell Wilson back this week, though it’s not even clear if that’s a positive. Denver had a season-high in first downs last week with Brett Rypien at QB, but that was primarily due to their best rushing day of the season.
The Broncos have been scoring more in their last two games, but still rank dead last in the NFL in scoring this year. So we’ll take the better coach against a bad team laying points on the road.
Chicago Bears (vs. Buffalo Bills)
Moneyline: +340Point Spread: +8.5
This is not a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, but is the highest rated play by our Decision Tree model.
We are also tracking for some bad weather in Chicago, which has lowered the total to 40.5 right now. So with the potential for some bad weather in mind, we are playing on some higher variance in what would be a pretty big upset.
If high winds impact the passing game, that’s likely a net positive for Chicago (which ranks 32nd in net yards per pass allowed) going against Josh Allen and the Bills’ explosive offense. Chicago, meanwhile, is 1st in rushing yards per carry and total rushing yards, and likely gets RB Khalil Herbert back this week from IR.
2022 Upset Pick History
Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.
So far this season, 29 of the picks we’ve made have gotten positive closing-line value (CLV), where the moneyline odds moved in favor of our Wednesday pick by kickoff time. In comparison, 16 picks had negative CLV.
WEEK | PICK | OPPONENT | WED ML | CLOSING ML | CLOSE VALUE | RESULT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Minnesota | Green Bay | 105 | -130 | Yes | W, 23-7 |
1 | NY Giants | Tennessee | 210 | 200 | Yes | W, 21-20 |
1 | Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | 232 | 266 | No | W, 23-20 |
2 | New Orleans | Tampa Bay | 125 | 124 | Yes | L, 20-10 |
2 | NY Jets | Cleveland | 215 | 220 | No | W, 31-30 |
2 | Atlanta | LA Rams | 400 | 372 | Yes | L, 31-27 |
3 | Houston | Chicago | 125 | 145 | No | L, 23-20 |
3 | Carolina | New Orleans | 135 | 115 | Yes | W, 22-14 |
3 | Indianapolis | Kansas City | 228 | 190 | Yes | W, 20-17 |
4 | New York Jets | Pittsburgh | 150 | 140 | Yes | W, 24-20 |
4 | Washington | Dallas | 155 | 135 | Yes | L, 25-10 |
4 | Seattle | Detroit | 180 | 151 | Yes | W, 48-45 |
5 | Washington | Tennessee | 115 | -110 | Yes | L, 21-17 |
5 | Dallas | LA Rams | 180 | 198 | No | W, 22-10 |
5 | Houston | Jacksonville | 270 | 260 | Yes | W, 13-6 |
6 | New Orleans | Cincinnati | 113 | 148 | No | L, 30-26 |
6 | Denver | LA Chargers | 203 | 165 | Yes | L, 19-16 |
6 | Carolina | LA Rams | 380 | 345 | Yes | L, 24-10 |
7 | Indianapolis | Tennessee | 125 | 120 | Yes | L, 19-10 |
7 | San Francisco | Kansas City | 131 | -103 | Yes | L, 44-23 |
7 | Cleveland | Baltimore | 230 | 240 | No | L, 23-20 |
8 | NY Giants | Seattle | 135 | 145 | No | L, 27-13 |
8 | Arizona | Minnesota | 167 | 170 | No | L, 34-26 |
8 | Carolina | Atlanta | 182 | 177 | Yes | L, 34-31 (OT) |
9 | New Orleans | Baltimore | 125 | 112 | Yes | L, 27-13 |
9 | Washington | Minnesota | 155 | 145 | Yes | L, 20-17 |
9 | Carolina | Cincinnati | 275 | 270 | Yes | L, 42-21 |
10 | Arizona | LA Rams | 154 | 163 | No | W, 27-17 |
10 | Minnesota | Buffalo | 165 | 215 | No | W, 33-30 |
10 | Houston | NY Giants | 190 | 199 | No | L, 24-16 |
11 | Chicago | Atlanta | 150 | 125 | Yes | L, 27-24 |
11 | Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | 177 | 160 | Yes | L, 37-30 |
11 | Cleveland | Buffalo | 293 | 300 | No | L, 31-23 |
12 | Tennessee | Cincinnati | 110 | -106 | Yes | L, 20-16 |
12 | Pittsburgh | Indianapolis | 120 | 115 | Yes | W, 24-17 |
12 | Jacksonville | Baltimore | 165 | 152 | Yes | W, 28-27 |
13 | New York Giants | Washington | 114 | 114 | No | T, 20-20 |
13 | New York Jets | Minnesota | 132 | 130 | Yes | L, 27-22 |
13 | Houston | Cleveland | 265 | 280 | No | L, 27-14 |
14 | Baltimore | Pittsburgh | 121 | 110 | Yes | W, 16-14 |
14 | LA Chargers | Miami | 145 | 146 | No | W, 23-17 |
14 | Carolina | Seattle | 178 | 167 | Yes | W, 30-24 |
15 | Tennessee | LA Chargers | 138 | 139 | No | L, 17-14 |
15 | Tampa Bay | Cincinnati | 168 | 162 | Yes | L, 34-23 |
15 | NY Giants | Washington | 184 | 180 | Yes | W, 20-12 |
Upset Pick Expectations
Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.
If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.
If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.
Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.
Week 16 Betting Picks & Models
If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.
If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for this week (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.
And if you’d like to see a curated list of some of our favorite betting picks that this week, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.
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