NBA Preseason Predictions 2023: Rankings, Win Totals, Standings & Playoff Odds

NBA Preseason Predictions 2023: Rankings, Win Totals, Standings & Playoff Odds

NBA preseason predictions for the 2023-24 season, including rankings, win totals, division standings projections, in-season tournament, and playoff/champion odds.

October 18, 2023 – by Jason Lisk

The Nuggets will be trying to defend their title (Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

The 2023-24 NBA season tips off next week, so it’s time to release our preseason predictive ratings and rankings for all NBA teams.

In addition to posting the rankings and some related commentary, we’ll also provide an overview of the methods we use to rank teams. For a more details on that, you can read our post explaining how we make NBA preseason rankings.

NBA Preseason Rankings & Predictions Menu

2023-24 NBA Preseason RankingsPreseason Rankings HighlightsWestern Conference Predictions & StandingsEastern Conference Predictions & StandingsIn-Season Tournament PredictionsNBA Playoff ProjectionsHow We Make NBA Preseason ProjectionsMaking NBA Futures Bets

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2023-24 BetIQ NBA Preseason Rankings

The table below shows our 2023-24 preseason ranking for all 30 NBA teams, along with each team’s associated predictive rating for the regular season.

Rank	Team	2023 Rating	Last Year	YOY Change	Consensus Win Range	Weighted Avg Wins
1	Boston Celtics	5.0	5.6	-0.6	53.9 – 54.4	54.1
2	Milwaukee Bucks	4.6	3.4	+1.2	53.0 – 53.8	53.4
3	Denver Nuggets	4.2	4.0	+0.2	51.0 – 52.0	51.7
4	Phoenix Suns	3.9	2.1	+1.8	50.8 – 52.0	51.1
5	Cleveland Cavaliers	3.1	4.2	-1.1	49.2 – 50.4	49.6
6	Golden State Warriors	2.6	1.8	+0.8	47.0 – 47.5	47.2
7	Philadelphia 76ers	2.6	3.9	-1.3	47.6 – 48.4	47.9
8	Los Angeles Lakers	2.4	1.1	+1.3	46.5 – 46.8	46.6
9	Los Angeles Clippers	2.0	0.6	+1.4	45.2 – 46.1	45.7
10	Memphis Grizzlies	1.8	2.8	-1.0	45.0 – 46.1	45.5
11	Sacramento Kings	1.4	1.3	+0.1	43.5 – 44.0	43.8
12	Minnesota Timberwolves	1.3	0.1	+1.2	43.6 – 44.1	43.9
13	Oklahoma City Thunder	1.2	-0.3	+1.5	43.5 – 44.4	43.8
14	New York Knicks	1.1	2.4	-1.3	44.1 – 44.3	44.2
15	New Orleans Hornets	1.1	1.3	-0.2	43.3 – 43.8	43.5
16	Dallas Mavericks	1.1	0.2	+0.9	42.7 – 44.1	43.5
17	Miami Heat	0.9	1.2	-0.3	44.1 – 44.2	44.2
18	Atlanta Hawks	0.2	0.6	-0.4	41.5 – 42.4	42.0
19	Indiana Pacers	-1.4	-3.2	+1.8	37.5 – 37.8	37.6
20	Chicago Bulls	-1.6	1.1	-2.7	36.8 – 37.3	37.2
21	Brooklyn Nets	-1.7	1.0	-2.7	36.5 – 36.9	36.6
22	Orlando Magic	-1.8	-2.6	+0.8	36.3 – 37.0	36.7
23	Utah Jazz	-2.0	-1.7	-0.3	35.0 – 35.7	35.4
24	Toronto Raptors	-2.2	1.5	-3.7	35.4 – 35.9	35.6
25	Houston Rockets	-3.7	-7.2	+3.5	30.9 – 31.3	31.2
26	Charlotte Bobcats	-4.0	-5.1	+1.1	30.5 – 31.4	31.0
27	San Antonio Spurs	-4.6	-8.7	+4.1	27.8 – 29.1	28.5
28	Portland Trail Blazers	-5.1	-3.2	-1.9	27.1 – 28.0	27.4
29	Detroit Pistons	-5.4	-7.0	+1.6	26.6 – 27.9	27.5
30	Washington Wizards	-7.0	-1.2	-5.8	23.0 – 24.0	23.7

Important Rankings Notes

Playoff Adjustments vs. Regular Season

A few years ago, we began making a few adjustments to NBA team ratings for the playoffs. The ratings in the table above represent our regular-season predictive ratings. These ratings determine win odds for regular-season games, and we use them to project outcomes like regular-season win totals and division-winner odds.

Team Ratings

Team ratings are expressed as points better (positive rating) or worse (negative rating) than a “perfectly average” NBA team when playing on a neutral court.

Last Year Rating

Last Year Rating means each team’s final predictive rating from the 2022-23 season, and Change represents the difference between Last Year Rating and this year’s preseason rating.

Interpreting the Changes

Positive “Change” values mean a team is expected to improve its performance level over last year; negative values mean expected declines.

The final two columns show info about the win total projections of the component systems that we blended in order to create our ratings.

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NBA Preseason Rankings Highlights

Celtics and Bucks on Top, Again

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks were the top two teams in our preseason rankings last year, and are also in the same spot this year. Boston was the favorite in the NBA playoffs a year ago, until they were upset by Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals. Milwaukee battled a lot of injuries, and were knocked out earlier. But they also added Damian Lillard this year and are again one of the favorites.

The defending champion Denver Nuggets are third, and have a rating entering this year very similar to their end-of-season rating from a year ago. This is a reminder that even though the Nuggets won the title, they weren’t the clearly best team a year ago, and were in fact the third-highest rated team entering the postseason (though the top team in the West).

Large Middle Class

Last year, only six teams were projected with a power rating between +2.0 and -2.0, as we projected a large group of “have’s” and “have-nots.” But things have shifted pretty quickly. This year, half the league has a rating between +2.0 and -2.0, meaning we view half the league as being within two points of an average team at the outset.

The No. 9 Los Angeles Clippers, for example, are closer in power rating to the No. 23 Utah Jazz than to the No. 3 Denver Nuggets.

Stronger and Deeper Western Conference

The top two teams, and four of the top six, are from the Eastern Conference. But nine of our top 13 teams are from the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is the ninth-highest rated team in the West, but are rated just ahead of the New York Knicks, who would be the fifth-highest rated team in the East. So the battle for the last spots in the West could be quite competitive, and between potentially some of the top teams.

Notable Player Movement

Here’s a full summary of player movement for the 2023-24 season. A few notable moves this offseason include:

Damian Lillard from Portland to MilwaukeeBradley Beal from Washington to PhoenixChris Paul from Phoenix (via Washington) to Golden StateJrue Holiday from Milwaukee (via Portland) to BostonFred VanVleet from Toronto to HoustonKristaps Porzingis from Washington to BostonJohn Collins from Atlanta to UtahRobert Williams from Boston to PortlandJordan Poole from Golden State to WashingtonMarcus Smart from Boston to MemphisDeAndre Ayton from Phoenix to Portland

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Western Conference Predictions

Even before the season starts, the numbers here may differ slightly from our NBA projected standings page. That isn’t us adjusting numbers behind the scenes; it’s just the result of random variance in our season simulations, which re-run daily, even in the preseason.

Once the 2023-24 NBA season begins, our projected standings page will update every day based on the previous day’s results.

Northwest	W	L	Playoffs	Win Div	Top Seed	NBA Champs
Denver	51.5	30.5	86.4%	56.1%	21.3%	13.1%
Minnesota	43.9	38.1	60.7%	19.3%	4.9%	1.0%
Okla City	43.8	38.2	59.0%	19.1%	5.2%	1.1%
Utah	35.6	46.4	26.1%	4.8%	0.7%	0.2%
Portland	27.3	54.7	6.3%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%

Pacific	W	L	Playoffs	Win Div	Top Seed	NBA Champs
Phoenix	51.3	30.7	84.9%	34.2%	18.7%	10.7%
Golden State	47.2	34.8	73.3%	19.9%	9.8%	6.1%
LA Lakers	46.7	35.3	70.7%	18.7%	9.4%	6.3%
LA Clippers	45.6	36.4	67.8%	16.0%	7.7%	3.5%
Sacramento	43.7	38.3	60.0%	11.3%	4.9%	1.5%

Southwest	W	L	Playoffs	Win Div	Top Seed	NBA Champs
Memphis	45.4	36.6	67.0%	37.8%	7.5%	2.6%
New Orleans	43.6	38.4	58.0%	28.6%	5.0%	1.5%
Dallas	43.4	38.6	57.9%	28.4%	4.7%	2.9%
Houston	31.2	50.8	13.5%	3.6%	0.2%	0.1%
San Antonio	28.4	53.6	8.5%	1.7%	0.1%	0.1%

Most Likely Division Winners 

Northwest: Denver (56%)

Southwest: Memphis (38%)

Pacific: Phoenix (34%)

Denver is just ahead of Phoenix in win total projections, though Denver has the higher chances of winning its division thanks to a projected easier set of opponents. In fact, four of the top five Western Conference teams by projected win total are in the Pacific Division.

Western Conference Outlook

The Western Conference has a large group of teams that have legitimate playoff aspirations, and then a small group who are seen as building for the future.

Eleven different teams have playoff odds over 50% entering the season. Five different teams are projected for between 43.4 and 43.9 wins, showing how narrow the cut line could be between getting into the playoffs without having to participate in the play-in tournament, or missing out on it altogether.

Denver and Phoenix are the clear title favorites out of the West, while Golden State and the Los Angeles Lakers also have title aspirations.

Most Likely NBA Champion: Denver Nuggets

Denver didn’t make many changes from last year’s title squad. But after several years of perennial playoff appearances and not quite breaking through, they finally did so. As long as Nikola Jokic is healthy and in his prime, they should be in contention.

Denver is just ahead of Phoenix, who has made some significant changes and will now be built around Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker.

The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have legitimate title aspirations, though the Lakers will need Anthony Davis to stay healthier to realize them.

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Eastern Conference Predictions

Atlantic	W	L	Playoffs	Win Div	Top Seed	NBA Champs
Boston	54.2	27.8	95.1%	57.0%	31.0%	18.9%
Philadelphia	48.1	33.9	83.9%	23.3%	10.3%	3.8%
New York	44.3	37.7	70.8%	13.7%	5.4%	1.4%
Brooklyn	36.6	45.4	40.0%	3.3%	1.0%	0.4%
Toronto	35.7	46.3	35.8%	2.7%	0.7%	0.4%

Central	W	L	Playoffs	Win Div	Top Seed	NBA Champs
Milwaukee	53.1	28.9	93.7%	55.2%	26.3%	17.5%
Cleveland	49.7	32.3	87.2%	34.4%	14.0%	2.5%
Indiana	37.7	44.3	42.6%	5.1%	1.2%	0.2%
Chicago	37.1	44.9	41.9%	4.7%	1.1%	0.3%
Detroit	27.5	54.5	11.0%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%

Southeast	W	L	Playoffs	Win Div	Top Seed	NBA Champs
Miami	44.2	37.8	70.3%	43.6%	4.6%	2.6%
Atlanta	41.9	40.1	62.9%	34.0%	3.4%	1.0%
Orlando	36.7	45.3	40.7%	15.8%	0.9%	0.3%
Charlotte	31.0	51.0	19.5%	5.5%	0.1%	0.1%
Washington	23.7	58.3	4.8%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Most Likely Division Winners 

Central: Milwaukee (55%)

Southeast: Miami (44%)

Atlantic: Boston (57%)

Milwaukee made a major move by acquiring Damian Lillard, a move that could have shifted the Eastern odds, as Miami was also interested in acquiring the star guard.

Meanwhile, Jrue Holiday was part of that trade, and the most integral piece to leave Milwaukee, but was immediately traded to Boston, giving them a different look at point guard with Marcus Smart gone.

Eastern Conference Outlook

Boston and Milwaukee look like the clear class of the East, with Miami lurking as well, and Cleveland and Donovan Mitchell in the mix. Philadelphia has some question marks with the James Harden situation, and after that it’s pretty wide open.

In a stark contrast to the West, we do not project the eighth-best team in the East to be above .500, or even have over 38.0 wins. Obviously, as the season plays out, some teams will perform better than expected and others will be worse, and so some team is likely to emerge as a stronger contender.

But as of the preseason, we project five teams for between 35.7 and 37.7 wins, all competing for the final playoff spots.

Most Likely NBA Champion: Boston Celtics

We have Boston narrowly ahead of Milwaukee in regular season wins as well as slightly higher in title odds. But they are very close with Milwaukee, and the two are the overall favorites to win the NBA title based on the moves they have made.

Damian Lillard gives Giannis Antetokounmpo a true second star to play with. Jrue Holiday, meanwhile, gives Boston the type of guard facilitator who can help unlock a great 1-2-3 punch with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

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2023-24 NBA Playoff Predictions

These are our projections for the playoff odds and advancement odds in both conferences. The “Reach Playoffs” column shows the percent of our season simulations in which each team reached the first round of the NBA playoffs (Seeds 1 to 8). If a team qualifies in the No. 7 to No. 10 spot but loses the play-in tournament, that’s counted as missing the playoffs here.

However, we do list 10 teams for each conference, so you can see which teams we think will most likely be a part of the play-in tournament.

Western Conference Playoff Projections

Seed	Team	Reach Playoffs	Conf. Semis	Conf. Finals	NBA Finals	NBA Champ
1	Denver	86%	60%	38%	23%	13%
2	Phoenix	85%	56%	34%	19%	11%
3	Golden State	73%	42%	23%	12%	6%
4	LA Lakers	71%	42%	23%	12%	6%
5	LA Clippers	68%	35%	16%	8%	3%
6	Memphis	67%	31%	14%	6%	3%
7	Minnesota	61%	21%	8%	3%	1%
8	Sacramento	60%	25%	10%	4%	2%
9	Oklahoma City	59%	22%	8%	3%	1%
10	New Orleans	58%	24%	9%	4%	2%

Eastern Conference Playoff Projections

Seed	Team	Reach Playoffs	Conf. Semis	Conf. Finals	NBA Finals	NBA Champ
1	Boston	95%	76%	53%	33%	19%
2	Milwaukee	94%	74%	51%	31%	18%
3	Cleveland	87%	44%	18%	7%	2%
4	Philadelphia	84%	47%	22%	9%	4%
5	New York	71%	30%	11%	4%	1%
6	Miami	70%	36%	16%	7%	3%
7	Atlanta	63%	24%	9%	3%	1%
8	Indiana	43%	11%	3%	1%	0%
9	Chicago	42%	13%	4%	1%	0%
10	Brooklyn	40%	13%	4%	1%	0%

Round-By-Round Predictions

Based on the above projected seeding and advancement odds, here is our best guess at the actual round-by-round results for the playoffs.

Play-In Games

Oklahoma City over New Orleans (New Orleans eliminated)Minnesota over Sacramento (Minnesota as West No. 7 seed)Sacramento over Oklahoma City (Sacramento as West No. 8 seed, OKC eliminated)

Chicago over Brooklyn (Brooklyn eliminated)Atlanta over Indiana (Atlanta as East No. 7 seed)Indiana over Chicago (Indiana as East No. 8 seed, Chicago eliminated)

First Round

No. 1 Denver over No. 8 SacramentoNo. 2 Phoenix over No. 7 MinnesotaNo. 3 Golden State over No. 6 MemphisNo. 4 LA Lakers over No. 5 LA Clippers

No. 1 Boston over No. 8 IndianaNo. 2 Milwaukee over No. 7 AtlantaNo. 3 Cleveland over No. 6 MiamiNo. 4 Philadelphia over No. 5 NY Knicks

Conference Semifinals

No. 1 Denver over No. 4 LA LakersNo. 2 Phoenix over No. 3 Golden State

No. 1 Boston over No. 4 PhiladelphiaNo. 2 Milwaukee over No. 3 Cleveland

Conference Finals

No. 1 Denver over No. 2 PhoenixNo. 1 Boston over No. 2 Milwaukee

NBA Finals

No. 1 Boston over No. 1 Denver

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2023 In-Season Tournament Projections

For 2023, the NBA is introducing an In-Season Tournament to be played in November and early December. The teams in each conference have been divided into three different groups of five teams. Regular season games scheduled for Tuesdays and Fridays in November will also count toward the tournament group standings.

The first-place team from each group, plus the highest-ranked second-place finisher in each conference, will advance to the knockout rounds. The quarterfinals will be hosted by the higher-seeded teams within each conference after group play, on December 4th and 5th. The semifinals and finals will take place in Las Vegas, on December 7th and 9th.

Here are our projections for each group. We list average projected wins (out of 4 games) in the group, the odds of going 4-0 in the group, and the overall estimated odds of finishing in 1st place in the group.

Eastern Conference Group A

Team	Avg. Wins	Undefeated	Group 1st Place
Cleveland	2.5	14%	32%
Philadelphia	2.5	14%	31%
Atlanta	2.1	6%	19%
Indiana	1.8	3%	13%
Detroit	1.2	1%	4%

Eastern Conference Group B

Team	Avg. Wins	Undefeated	Group 1st Place
Milwaukee	2.8	23%	42%
New York	2.3	9%	25%
Miami	2.3	9%	23%
Charlotte	1.5	2%	7%
Washington	1.1	0%	3%

Eastern Conference Group C

Team	Avg. Wins	Undefeated	Group 1st Place
Boston	2.9	25%	47%
Chicago	1.8	3%	14%
Brooklyn	1.8	3%	14%
Orlando	1.8	4%	14%
Toronto	1.7	3%	12%

Western Conference Group A

Team	Avg. Wins	Undefeated	Group 1st Place
Phoenix	2.6	17%	37%
LA Lakers	2.4	11%	29%
Memphis	2.0	6%	19%
Utah	1.7	3%	11%
Portland	1.3	1%	5%

Western Conference Group B

Team	Avg. Wins	Undefeated	Group 1st Place
Denver	2.5	15%	35%
LA Clippers	2.2	7%	22%
New Orleans	2.0	6%	20%
Dallas	2.0	5%	18%
Houston	1.3	1%	5%

Western Conference Group C

Team	Avg. Wins	Undefeated	Group 1st Place
Golden State	2.3	11%	28%
Sacramento	2.2	8%	23%
Minnesota	2.2	8%	23%
Oklahoma City	2.1	7%	21%
San Antonio	1.2	1%	5%

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How We Make NBA Projections

Our projections are based on our 2023-24 NBA preseason ratings. We use those ratings to simulate the full 2023-24 NBA season, including the playoffs, thousands of times.

Starting three years ago, we also introduced a few adjustments to NBA team ratings for the playoffs to better account for player/minute distributions. Teams typically shorten their rotations and give more minutes to their top players in the postseason. Our projections now do a better job of adjusting for that effect.

We average the individual team outcomes in the thousands of season simulations that we run. Those averages become our official preseason projections.

Injuries and Other Roster Changes

As they do every season, injuries and trades will derail at least a few of our preseason forecasts. That’s an inevitable risk of trying to predict the distant future. However, we do incorporate variance into our season simulations to help account for those possibilities.

Projections Represent Averages

The projections are the average results from thousands of simulations. In any individual simulation (or in the real season), some teams will do significantly better or worse than our average projection. But we don’t know which teams those will be. Because of this dynamic, the preseason projections generally look a little conservative at the extreme ends. 

Play-In Tournament Note

These projections include the updated playoff format that began three years ago. Teams that finish seventh through 10th in each conference battle for the final two playoff spots in a play-in tournament.

The playoff odds listed in various places in this article do not count making the play-in tournament but missing out on a first-round playoff spot as reaching the playoffs. However, getting into the first round after coming through the play-in tournament does count as reaching the playoffs.

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Making NBA Futures Bets Based On These Predictions

We also want to provide some quick thoughts to the NBA bettors out there.

If you’re considering using the information here to make NBA futures bets (e.g. a preseason bet on a team’s regular-season win total, or on a team to win its division or the NBA championship), please keep a few things in mind.

Future Payout Odds and Futures Wagers

Identifying value in current NBA futures odds based on our preseason projections requires a more involved process than we cover here. We’ve previously written about how to evaluate futures odds, which you should read if you’re considering betting NBA futures.

Playoff Rotation Impacts

Our projections apply only a few rough adjustments to model the shortened rotations seen in the NBA playoffs. So, playoff advancement odds may be a relative weak spot in our model.

Historical Performance of Projections

We have yet to calculate the historical profits or losses that would have resulted from making futures bets wherever our preseason NBA projections indicated there was an edge, or for a select subset of those bets (e.g. the biggest outliers compared to betting market odds).

If our projections are very far off consensus futures odds in the NBA betting markets, we’re more likely to believe that our models are missing something (and that we should go back and adjust our team ratings) than to believe we’ve uncovered some huge betting edge that no one else realizes.  

Wrapping Up

Plenty of these season projections will end up being wrong for lots of possible reasons. It’s important to understand that our goal is the overall accuracy of the system, and in particular the team ratings and projected regular-season win-loss records.

Even if the system as a whole ends up being more accurate than other NBA pundits or prediction methods, projections for any one specific team could still be far off that team’s actual results.

The value we bring to the table here is a systematic, data-driven approach that more precisely evaluates dynamics that human experts are typically bad at evaluating (e.g. the impact of schedule strength, or accounting for variance in expected team performance). Our system is driven not by subjective opinions, but by data that has demonstrated predictive value.

It isn’t perfect, but it’s far more sophisticated and objective than a lot of what’s out there.

Enjoy the 2023-24 NBA season!

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