Evansville vs Tennessee Game 1 Picks, Odds, Best Bets for Knoxville Super Regional

Tennessee pitcher AJ Causey (18) reacts after defeating Vanderbilt at Hawkins Field in Nashville, Tenn., Friday, May 10, 2024.College Baseball Super Regionals begin on Friday, June 7The #1 overall seed Tennessee is hosting the only four-seed to make it to the supers in 2024Read below for Evansville vs Tennessee odds, best bets, and predictions for Game 1 of the Knoxville Super Regional

The betting favorite to win the College World Series cruised in their regionals to advance to this weekend. Tennessee earned the #1 overall seed in college baseball after winning the SEC regular season and tournament. The Volunteers went a perfect 3-0 in the Knoxville regional defeating Northern Kentucky 9-3, Indiana 12-6, and Southern Miss 12-3. They looked exactly like the top-ranked team in the field and barely broke a sweat against some solid ball clubs in Indiana and Southern Miss. They are now just two wins away from making it back to Omaha.

Evansville could not have had a different path to reach the supers. The Purple Aces were a three-seed in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament and needed to win that to clinch a spot in regionals. After winning the tournament and stealing a bid from potential bubble teams, they traveled to the Greensville regional where they were the four-seed.

Evansville shocked the college baseball world by defeating #16 overall East Carolina 4-1 in Game 1 of the regional. They went on to beat VCU 17-11, then fell to East Carolina 19-6 in their rematch which led to a winner-take-all game on Monday. The Purple Aces upset East Carolina on their home field yet again 6-5 to become just the ninth four-seed to win a regional since 1999.

Evansville vs Tennessee Game 1 Odds

The odds list the Volunteers as heavy favorites in Game 1 of the Knoxville Super Regional. With moneyline odds of -720, the sportsbooks are giving the #1 overall seed an implied win probability of 87.8%. For Evansville’s underdog story to continue, they will need to overcome these long odds. Volunteers are favored by 4.5 runs, a number in which they cleared in each of their three regional matchups. The total in Game 1 is set at O/U 13.5 runs.

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Evansville vs Tennessee Probable Starters for Game 1

Kenton DevermanVSChris Stamos

These teams will be deploying different strategies when it comes to the starting pitching in this best two out of three series. Evansville will be utilizing their freshman left-hander who has been their ace on the season. Deverman is fresh off an 8-inning outing against East Carolina in Game 1 of the Greeensville Regional. In the 98 pitches he threw, Deverman struck out four and allowed just one earned run on three hits against a potent East Carolina lineup. That was the only appearance Deverman made in regionals, so he will be well-rested heading into the supers.

Tennessee will be using a combination of opener Chris Stamos and long-reliever AJ Causey vs Evansville in Game 1. Tennessee’s ace, Drew Beam, is slated to play in Game 2, making it difficult for Evansville to bounce back if they were to lose on Friday. Against Northern Kentucky in the regional, Stamos threw just 16 pitches and allowed an early home run. Stamos was not needed in Tennessee’s other two regional games, so he will be ready to return to form as the opener against the Purple Aces.

Once Stamos is done, the Volunteers will turn to side-arm pitcher AJ Causey. Causey filled in for Stamos against Northern Kentucky and threw 111 pitches in 6.32 innings. During his outing, Causey struck out nine and allowed two runs. On the season, Causey has a 3.98 ERA, 12.1 K/9, and a 12-3 record.

Can Evansville Continue Their Cinderella Story?

Evansville has been a great story and a fun team to watch, but they have their work cut out for them in the Knoxville Super Regional. Out of the eight four-seeds that have reached the super regionals, just three have made it to the College World Series. Still, Friday is their best chance to steal a win from Tennessee with their ace Deverman on the mound. The freshman looked great in a hostile environment last Friday and will need to battle through that same adversity against what will be a rowdy crowd in Knoxville.

The crowd will not be the only thing that Deverman will need to be prepared for as Tennessee scored the third-most runs in college baseball this season and is the top-ranked offense remaining in the tournament. The Volunteers’ offense is led by Christian Moore. The leadoff second baseman is hitting .378 on the season and has 29 home runs. Their lineup is also deep as even the nine-hole hitter, Cal Stark, hit three home runs in regionals. Tennessee scored 9 runs, 12 runs, and 12 runs in their three regional games, so Deverman will need another East Carolina-like start for the Purple Aces to stay competitive and keep their Cinderella story alive.

Evansville is no stranger to scoring either though. They have a veteran lineup who makes solid contact with the ball consistently. This was shown in their regional performances where they scored 4 runs, 17 runs, 6 runs, and 6 runs. Their 17-point outing was against a VCU team that had solid pitching all season as well. The Purple Aces have a strong two-three punch in their lineup with left fielder Mark Shallenberger and designated hitter Kip Fougerousse. Shallenberger has a .390 average and has hit 17 home runs, while Fougerousse has a .350 average and 21 homers on the year.

Evansville vs Tennessee Picks

Despite the offensive firepower in this matchup, I like the under in Game 1 of the Knoxville Super Regional. This game has the potential for Tennessee’s offense to be more limited than they have been this postseason so far with Deverman on the mound. Then, when it comes to Tennessee’s pitching, they may have found a cheat code with using Stamos as an opener then going to Causey to eat most of the innings. Causey is a strikeout pitcher whose sidearm motion can confuse batters.

Both teams’ bullpens are also fresh after the time off between regionals and super regionals. I do not see Evansville scoring many runs, which means even if Tennessee pulls away, we can still cash under 13.5 runs with ease.

Evansville vs Tennessee Game 1 Best Bet: Under 13.5 (-115)

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