Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Odds, Player Props & Picks

Nov 4, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) leaves the court in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bulls at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY SportsDenver is a small home favorite over Golden State on Wednesday nightThe Nuggets are a perfect 5-0 at home and 4-1 ATS but will be without Jamal MurraySee the Warriors vs Nuggets odds, player props, betting trends, and expert picks for Nov. 8

The Denver Nuggets (7-1, 5-0 home, 5-3 ATS) look to keep their perfect home record intact tonight when they welcome Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors (6-2, 5-1 away, 4-4 ATS) to Ball Arena at 10:00 pm ET (8:00 pm CT).

As Golden State finishes off a four-game road trip, oddsmakers are showing Curry and company a great deal of respect. Golden State is just a three-point road underdog to Nikola Jokic and the reigning NBA champions, who have won all five of their home games to date by at least eight points.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Odds

The Warriors are just +130 on the moneyline to end Denver’s perfect run at home, while the total is 226.5 in Wednesday’s NBA odds. Denver and Golden State are skewing to the under early in the season, with both teams bringing 3-5 O/U records into tonight’s game.

The NBA public-betting splits show Denver getting 58% of ATS handle and 73% of moneyline handle.

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Odds as of Nov. 8 on the Caesars Sportsbook app. New users can claim a Caesars promo for November to bet on Warriors vs Nuggets tonight. 

The Nuggets are the top Western Conference team in the NBA championship odds at +488 on average, but that remains third overall behind both the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks. Golden State is the fifth-favorite at +1250 and sits third in the NBA Western Conference odds at +650, well back of Denver (+258) and Phoenix (+312).

Jamal Murray Out for Nuggets

The main reason the Golden State vs Denver point spread is so slim is the absence of Nuggets two-guard Jamal Murray, who was averaging 16.3 points and 7.4 assists per game before going down with a hamstring injury.

Making matters worse, two-time NBA MVP (2021, 2022) Nikola Jokic is listed as day-to-day with a wrist issue. But he is “probable” for tonight’s game and there hasn’t been any credible news that he’s at risk of not playing, and that, of course, is all important to the Nuggets.

The Nuggets looked vulnerable in their first game without Murray on Monday, falling behind New Orleans by 12 points at halftime before storming back to not only win (134-116) but easily cover as 5.5-point chalk.

Jokic had a monster performance against the Pelicans, pouring in a season-high 35 points to go along with 14 rebounds, 12 assists, a block, and a steal, while only committing two turnovers despite basically running the point for Denver.

Denver’s Jokic Favored in NBA MVP Odds

Monday’s performance helped Jokic consolidated his status as the early betting favorite in the 2024 NBA MVP odds. Though it’s early days yet, Jokic is averaging a career-best 28.4 points per game along with 12.9 rebounds, and 8.4 assists, all of which are team-highs.

Chasing Jokic in the NBA MVP race is fellow two-time winner Steph Curry (2015, 2016), who has seen his odds improve from +1450 on opening night to +975 currently. The 35-year-old has led the Warriors in points in all eight games this season, averaging just nearly 31 per night (30.9) along with 4.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists, all while shooting 53% from the field and an outlandish 47.5% from three.

Warriors vs Nuggets Player Props

Jokic is listed with the highest point total (29.5), rebound total (12.5), and assist total (9.5) of the night. While the circumstances are obviously different with Murray on the shelf, Jokic averaged 24 points, 13 rebounds, and 13 assists per game in two contests against the Warriors last year.

Curry (28.5) has the highest point total for the Warriors by wide margin. The next-highest on the team is Klay Thompson at 15.5. The other Splash Brother, who’s averaged over 20 PPG in each of the last seven seasons, has seen his production go down early in the 2023-24 campaign. Thompson is averaging just 16.6 points (lowest since rookie season), 2.1 assists (lowest since 2016-17), and 3.3 rebounds (lowest since 2016-17).

Warriors vs Nuggets Predictions

The Nuggets showed during their NBA championship run last year that they have considerable depth. This year, five different players are averaging double-digit points: Jokic, Murray, Porter (15.9 PPG), Gordon (13.4), and Caldwell-Pope (10.3).

Denver beat Golden State all three times they met last year, including a 112-110 home victory without Jokic. In the two games Jokic did play, the Nuggets won 134-117 at home and 128-123 on the road. The loss of Murray is going to hurt, especially down the road if he misses significant time, but as long as Jokic is in the lineup, Denver deserves to be a bigger home favorite.

Golden State’s 5-1 road record this season has come at the expense of the Pistons, Thunder, Pelicans, Rockets, and Kings – hardly a murderer’s row of opponents. They were just 11-30 on the road last season, which was by far the worst road record of any playoff team.

Don’t go overboard with the wager amount. If there’s more to the Jokic injury than is being let on, it could blow-up in your face. But as long as Jokic is near to 100%, I will take Denver to cover.

Golden State vs Denver Picks:

Nuggets -3 (-110)Jokic over 9.5 assists (-130)

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