Leafs vs Blues Prediction, Odds & Picks for Monday Afternoon Hockey

Feb 13, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) tries to deflect a puck against St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington (50) during the first period Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY SportsLeafs vs Blues goes down on Monday afternoon (Feb. 19)The Monday NHL odds price St. Louis as home underdogsRead below for Leafs vs Blues  prediction, odds & picks for Monday

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to extend their winning streak to four games when they visit the St. Louis Blues for Monday Afternoon Hockey. The Puck drops at 1:00 PM EST on ESPN.

Oddsmakers are siding with this surging Toronto squad, setting the Maple Leafs as -160 road favorites over the Blues. The over/under is offered at 6.5 for a matchup featuring the NHL’s leading goalscorer in Auston Matthews.

Let’s get into our Leafs vs Blues prediction, as we analyze the game and dissect the odds.

Leafs vs Blues Odds

In the Leafs vs Blues odds, Toronto is a -160 moneyline favorite, giving them 62% implied win probability.

Auston Matthews is expected to be heavily favored as an anytime goalscorer in the NHL player props.

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Odds as of February 18, 2024, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on Leafs vs Blues.

Blues Looking to Rebound

The Blues are looking to bounce back from a 5-2 defeat at the hands of the Nashville Predators on Saturday. Torey Krug, a defenseman for the Blues, acknowledged the Predators’ effective play but pointed out the lack of cohesion in his own team.

“We were disjointed across the board, from breaking out of our defensive zone to our efforts in the offensive zone. In crucial games like these, that simply won’t cut it,” Krug stated.

“I think we lacked support all over the ice… we just weren’t connected and in big games like that you just can’t do it.”

Jordan Kyrou, Torey Krug and Drew Bannister speak to the media after today’s loss to Nashville. pic.twitter.com/7j8bsdBs8o

— St. Louis Blues (@StLouisBlues) February 18, 2024

Before this setback, the Blues had secured victories in eight out of ten contests, contending closely with the Predators for a wild-card position in the Western Conference NHL Playoff Bracket. A primary driver in that success was the play of Jordan Binnington, who is sporting a .908 save percentage this season.

The Blues are led on offense by Brayden Schenn, who has scored 13 goals and 30 points in 54 games. The team is averaging 2.93 goals per game, which is 21st in the league. St. Louis actually doesn’t rank in the top half of the NHL in any major statistical category.

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Leafs Aim to Stay Hot

The Maple Leafs come into this game riding a three-game winning streak following a 9-2 blowout of Anaheim on Saturday. Auston Matthews, the top-line center for the Maple Leafs, has been in exceptional form, achieving hat tricks in back-to-back games.

Toronto’s goaltending has once again been an issue this season, but there’s no doubting the offense. The Leafs are averaging 3.57 goals per game (4th) while also boasting the second-best power play in the NHL (28.15).

Maple Leafs Auston Matthews scores back-to-back Hat Tricks for the 2nd time this season.

He's the first NHL player with back-to-back Hat Tricks on multiple occasions in a single campaign since Wayne Gretzky in 1983-84 pic.twitter.com/W7mifTJKhn

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) February 18, 2024

On Tuesday, despite missing key players including captain John Tavares, forward Mitch Marner due to illness, and defenseman Morgan Rielly due to suspension, the Leafs emerged victorious over the Blues with a 4-1 score. Bobby McMann, stepping in, achieved his first career hat trick in that game, while Samsonov required only fourteen saves for the win.

Tavares is listed as day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, but Marner returned to earn five assists in Toronto’s last two games. Samsonov is Monday’s projected starting NHL goalie.

Leafs vs Blues Prediction

If you just look only looks at the game these two teams played several days ago, it might seem like Toronto is a great bet for the rematch. However, that game was played in Toronto, and the Blues beat the Leafs 6-5 in overtime the last time these two teams met in St. Louis.

St. Louis has earned a point in three of the past four meetings with Toronto, but it’s hard to feel overly confident in this trend continuing. Over the past month, the Blues rank second-last in the entire NHL at even strength in expected goals percentage (43.65 xGF%).

Here are some betting trends to note for Blues vs Leafs:

Blues are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous gameMaple Leafs are 5-0 in their last 5 vs a team with a winning recordOver is 5-0 in Blues last 5 games a home underdog

For our Leafs vs Blues prediction, we’re locking in the “over” on the game total. It’s cashed in four of the Leafs’ past five games, and in seven of the Blues’ past 10 contests. Furthermore, it’s hit in three straight meetings between these two clubs.

Look for the Leafs to continue rolling offensively, while the Blues’ snipers find some holes on Samsonov to cash the over of 6.5 goals.

Monday NHL Picks:

Over 6.5 Goals (-105)Auston Matthews Anytime Goal (TBD)

 

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