NFL Teaser Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 1 (2023)

One popular way bettors try to find value on NFL lines is by playing teasers. An NFL teaser is similar to a parlay; you add multiple legs that must all win for the bet to pay out. The key difference from parlays is that a teaser allows you to buy points like 6, 6.5, or 7 in a direction that lowers risk.

Teaser Tips to Follow

  • Never Cross over 0
  • Tease through two key numbers, ideally 3 & 7.
  • Tease games with lower totals, ideally anything 49 or less.

Below are four teaser options for Week 1, along with my Best bet. 

  • Expert NFL Game Picks
  • NFL Betting Strategy
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  • NFL Prop Bet Analyzer

Week 1 Teaser Options

Cleveland Browns from +2 to +8 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

I think the Cleveland Browns have an excellent opportunity to win this game outright. The Browns may be Joe Burrow’s kryptonite, as he is 1-4 against the Browns since coming into the league. 

Joe Burrow has not been able to practice much during the preseason due to his calf injury, and he may be a bit rusty heading into the regular season. The Browns revamped their defense. They fired Joe Woods, hired Jim Schwartz as the DC, and added DT Dalvin Tomlinson, DE Za’ Darious Smith, and safety Juan Thornhill. 

Their offense is a bit underrated as well. Despite going through 2022 with the uncertainty of Deshaun Watson, Cleveland’s offense still finished 12th in Success Rate, which was ahead of other playoff teams like Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Los Angeles (Chargers)

Now Kevin Stefanski has had an entire offseason and preseason to fully and confidently build an offense strictly around Watson. Take the points with the home underdog.

Washington Commander from -7 to -1 vs. Arizona Cardinals

There is a good shot that the Commanders cover the 7-pt spread. Arizona still needs to announce a starting QB, whether it be Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune; they have a massive challenge facing one of the more tenacious defensive lines in the NFL. In terms of Success Rate, Washington has the 5th best defense in the NFL while allowing 304 yards per game, 3rd best. 

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Eric Bienemy’s play-calling already made a significant impression on the offense as Sam Howell and the starters showed to be really explosive in the preseason. 

In the two games Howell played, he went a combined 28/52 with 265 passing yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions.

New York Jets from +2.5 to +8.5 vs. Buffalo Bills

Both defenses finished in the top 10 in yards per game, points per game, and EPA/play last season. I fully expect the same in 2023. Aaron Rodgers brings more firepower to this offense, but it may take a few weeks to adjust and gel.

Despite big-time QBs on both teams, I’d expect this game to be lower scoring than people expect. This will be a heavy-weight fight between two teams eyeing the AFC East title. 

Overall, I think the Bills are a better team and should win this outright, but the Jets should keep this within one score.

Green Bay Packers from +1 to +7 vs. Chicago Bears

I am personally a lot higher on the Packers than most. Most expect a huge jump for Justin Fields in year three, and we may see some improvement from now they have a true No. 1 wideout in D.J. Moore. We may need to pump the brakes on the Bears hype train; they still have massive concerns on their o-line, especially losing Teven Jenkins to injury.

On the other side of the line, the Bears have no pass rush, which will be a massive advantage for Jordan Love and the Packers. This Bears defense finished dead last in both defensive EPA per play. They also allowed 14.4 yards per reception; the 2nd highest in the NFL.

In PFF’s OL/DL Matchup Chart, the Packers have the most significant pass-blocking advantage in Week 1. Allowing Jordan Love to be comfortable in the pocket should enable him to make plays downfield and take advantage of this weak Chicago secondary. Look for some big plays downfield to Christain Watson.

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We may have missed the best number for this teaser, as the line was 2.5 earlier this week, but getting a full touchdown with the Packers still provides excellent value.

Best Bet: Week 1 6-pt teaser

  • Packers +7 / Commanders -1 (-120 odds)

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Kurt Blakeway