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Welcome back to my Week 3 NFL Line Report at BettingPros featuring my custom cost-per-point betting analysis. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept, I encourage you to check out my Week 1 introduction. Long story short, NFL prices aren’t standardized, and therefore not all points are priced equally. I’m going to run valuations on the betting board and chart prices each week to identify which scenarios are advantageous to bet the ML versus ATS (and vice-versa).
- More NFL Betting Advice
- NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- Expert NFL Game Picks
- NFL Betting Strategy
Overnight Line Moves Since the Open
NYG moved from (+10.5) to (+10) at SF
The move’s not a condemnation of the 49ers (who look incredible thus far) but a statement on the Giants’ competency. After a massive Week 1 blowout to Dallas and a similar beatdown at the hands of Arizona through thirty minutes, it’s no surprise bettors were ready to tuck tail and run on Big Blue. The Giants showed moxie late, winning the game and restoring some faith in their preseason expectations. However, I think the current (-10) line is temporarily frozen because Brian Daboll said Saquon Barkley may play. Personally, I don’t think the star RB will suit up after a nasty-looking ankle injury, Even if he does, he’ll likely be ineffective. Expect a violent move towards SF upon a definitive announcement. Interesting final note, the money line price moved in the opposite direction of the spread since the opening.
IND moved to (+8) from (+7.5) at BAL
Questions surrounding Colts superstar rookie QB Anthony Richardson are driving the price toward an injured Baltimore Raven team, despite above-average play from Indy’s backup. I don’t think we’ll see much movement even if Richardson is ruled out after Minshew posted a 107.3 passer rating on 6.8 yards per attempt and a 76.0% completion rate in limited work. Richardson being out could move us a half point, but I think the majority of the impact’s already being baked in.
HOU moved to (+9.5) from (+8.5) at JAX
Feels like narrative chasing to me after C.J. Stroud impressed as a passer for Houston and the Jaguars fell flat against the Chiefs. Don’t get me wrong, I do think Jacksonville’s going to win this one but it should be closer to a touchdown than double digits. If this does get to (+10), I’m moving on the Texans.
NE moved to (-2.5) from (-3) at NYJ
I’ve admittedly been surprised all season by line moves toward the league’s most flawed teams. Personally, I like to only bet on good football teams. In my opinion, the Patriots should be a three-point favorite getting off the bus based on QB play alone. It’s hard to envision the Zach Wilson-led Jets scoring enough to beat anyone, particularly a complete Patriot defense that’s top-10 in drive distance, defensive rush success rate, and yards per completion allowed.
LAC moved to (+1) from (-1.5) at MIN
It’s not often we see the spread swing from a negative to a positive but the Chargers keep finding new ways to lose and bettors are sick of the Bolts. Personally, I’m not sold on these Vikings whatsoever so I’ll have a keen eye on this price all week. I have the Chargers winning outright but I’ll admit the pass D is scaring me.
TEN moved to (+3) from (+4) at CLE
As good as the Cleveland defense looks, they’re equally as horrid on offense. It was about time the betting public started asking if Deshaun Watson still had it in him to be a high-level NFL quarterback. Then, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill bounced back in a big way after an atrocious game in Week 1 versus the Saints. Don’t be shocked if this move isn’t complete. Regardless, I can’t back teams this bad on offense and the only bet I’d be looking at is the under.
CAR moved to (+6) from (+4.5) at SEA
Things in Carolina are bleak and after two weeks and first-overall pick Bryce Young is yet to eclipse 300 total passing yards. Geno Smith and the Seahawks’ offense exploded on the fast track in Detroit last Sunday, but the Panthers front seven will likely present more of a challenge. That said, there’s virtually nothing to get excited about in Carolina and I’m getting that sneaking suspicion this may be the final time we see CAR as less than a touchdown dog.
CHI moved to (+12.5) from (+13) at KC
More money coming in on terrible teams and I’ll be here to bet on the Chiefs at the lowest point.
PIT moved to (+3) from (-1) at LV
It’s still early in the season but a lot of the presumptions for positive offensive growth in Pittsburgh feel like they may have been misplaced. I tend to think the Steelers will absolutely get up off the mat after facing two of the more difficult defenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Raiders are dead last in EPA/play on defense while averaging only 13.5 points on offense. I don’t get it.
PHI moved to (-5) from (-5.5) at TB
The Eagles’ defense allowing 5.7 yards per play as Baker Mayfield wins games for Tampa must be at the center of the move toward the underdog. I don’t know where this one’s going to wind up but I think the universe corrects this weekend and Philadelphia wins it running away.
LAR moved to (+1) from (+2) at CIN
Los Angeles and Cincinnati are sitting on opposite ends of the surprise spectrum so far in 2023. This would normally be the perfect spot to buy the dip on the struggling Bengals, but Joe Burrow’s status is in question and there’s a 0.0% chance I’d ever bet American currency on Jake Browning.
NFL Week 3 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves
CHI should move to (+13) from (+12.5) at KC
The Chiefs are the most expensive spread on the betting board with the highest intra-game cost-per-point disparity, all attached to an unpalatable (-700) on the money line. Based on that alone, I’m surprised we saw significant movement from a critical (-13) at all. To the game itself, saying the Bears look hapless and possibly worse than their 14-point-per-game differential could be putting it lightly. In my most current power ranks, I have them as a bottom-five offense and also a bottom-five defense. On the other hand, you have the Chiefs led by Chris Jones, who’s playing like a man possessed that just held a prolific Jaguars team out of the endzone. This line should be two touchdowns minimum.
DAL should move to (-12.5) from (-12) at ARI
Dallas has the second most costly point on the Sunday slate while clearing a key +$12 difference between teams to indicate an upcoming move. So far this year the general market appears skittish in regard to two-touchdown covers. This might partially explain the line but given the on-field edge across all phases of the game, I’m still surprised we aren’t beyond (-13); where I think the price is going to close.
NFL Week 3 Favorites with Value on the Moneyline versus ATS
- LV (-145) vs PIT
- NE (-135) at NYJ
- CIN (-120) vs LAR
- GB (-125) vs NO
- LAC (-105) at MIN
NFL Week 3 Underdogs with Value ATS vs. On the Moneyline
- PIT (+3) at LV
- NYJ (+2.5) vs NE
- LAR (+1) vs CIN
- NO (+2) at GB
- LAC (+1) at MIN
I cannot stress enough how important it is to maximize these valuations through proper execution. Though it doesn’t predict the future and tell you who to bet on, there’s an objective advantage to understanding the how. In fact, we’ve already had four different games decided by one point (12.5%!) and another two games by two points. The fact is this; these games are impossible to handicap to a degree that negates the value of point efficiency.
Week 3 BET: NE ML (-135) to win 1 unit. Record YTD (1-0, +1.0u)
Money coming in on the Pats since the open pushed prices to a premium and right now it’s just not worth it to pay to cover. Even at -2.5 we have to consider the winless Patriots are still on the road against a tough divisional opponent with a vaunted defense. That said, the Jets offense stares up at sub-basements. They’re bottom-5 in plays per game, yards per game, EPA/play, average drive distance, and every single meaningful passing stat including a league-worst 60% pressure allowed. Bill Belichick is going to confuse and befuddle the former No. 2 overall pick, and if the Pats can get to ten points this one may be out of reach for New York.
The Pats D presents a challenge as always but it’s the fully renovated offense under Bill O’Brien that’s got my attention. Game scripts have partially played a role in the playcalling but these Patriots are showing a newfound giddy-up. They’re fourth in plays per game and first overall in dropbacks, attempts, and completions. Last year under Joe Judge and Matt Patricia the Patriots felt out of sync and that’s no longer the case; Mac Jones’ 8.1 air yards per attempt show a willingness to challenge downfield. I don’t New England are world beaters by any stretch, but you can bet they’ll be bringing the house when Wilson performs his worst, with his back against the goalpost.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
- NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football Betting Primer: Expert Picks & Predictions (Giants vs. 49ers)
- NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Giants vs. 49ers (Week 3)
- NFL Thursday Night Football Player Prop Picks: Giants vs. 49ers (Week 3)
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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