Odds Aaron Rodgers Plays Another Snap This Season

Nov 6, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets injured quarterback Aaron Rodgers reacts during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY SportsWill Aaron Rodgers play another snap this NFL season?DraftKings has set +200 odds in favor of Rodgers returning in 2023-24Read below for analysis on whether Aaron Rodgers will play this season or not

Will Aaron Rodgers be back this season? That’s a question many NFL fans have been asking lately, and DraftKings is adding fuel to the fire by setting a betting line on this outcome.

According to the latest odds released by DraftKings, there’s a 33% chance Rodgers will return this NFL regular season. They’re offering bettors +200 odds on Rodgers playing another snap before the conclusion of the 2023-24 NFL campaign.

Let’s dive into this unique prop bet, and determine if there’s value on betting Rodgers to play another snap this season.

Will Aaron Rodgers Play Another Snap this Season?

DraftKings is only offering “yes” outcome for this prop, setting the odds that Aaron Rodgers play again this regular season at +200.

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Odds as of November 18, 2023, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings promo for November to bet on Aaron Rodgers returning.

Aaron Rodgers Injury Update

The latest Aaron Rodgers injury update is quite positive and indicates that the betting line for this prop might not be properly juiced. In Rodgers’ weekly appearance on the “The Pat McAfee Show” this Tuesday, Rodgers said, “I’m gonna be back there full time real soon.”

"I'm gonna be back with the Jets full time real soon..

The plan has always been to be back full time right around Thanksgiving" @AaronRodgers12 #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/2PnQSKutjH

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) November 14, 2023

Rogers reiterated to the show hosts that the plan has always been to rejoin the team full-time around Thanksgiving. It’s important to note Rodgers didn’t specifically state he’ll be back on the field, so the word “back” in this instance could just mean back in the building with the team full time.

While Rodgers might not be back on the field this month, he did recently tell NBC that he is targeting mid-December to return to playing with the team in an actual game. This means we could potentially see the future Hall of Famer back in action against the Miami Dolphins on December 17th.

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What the Experts Are Saying

Will Aaron Rodgers actually return this NFL regular season, or is this all just wishful thinking? Rodgers’ recovery is certainly progressing a lot faster than originally expected, but an actual December return after suffering a torn Achilles in September would be historic.

According to the injury segment on a recent episode of the ‘Bet the Board’ podcast, a December-January return for Rodgers is a somewhat realistic target for the QB.  Injury analyst Deepak Chonacite cites the fact that Rodgers is willing to come back at much less than 100%, and it’s beneficial that it’s a left-calf strain as opposed to one on his throwing side.

I think there’s a chance. This could break all the precedents, and I don’t think we’ll see it again – Doctor Deepak Chonacite

Doctor Brian Sutterer, who has a popular YouTube channel discuring sports injuries, recently reacted to the latest Rodgers injury update. He’s expressed concern about this new timetable, stating Achilles injuries usually require a 9 to 12-month recovery, although there have been exceptions.

According to Sutterer, complete healing of the tendon at three months is unlikely, and early return may affect the tendon’s strength and length. He also mentions that rushed rehabilitation increases the risk of re-rupture, which could impact the following season.

Betting Advice on Aaron Rodgers

We think there is some minor value in betting on Rodgers to return this regular season at +200 odds at DraftKings. Rodgers’ decision to return early is personal, as he recognizes the risks and potential functional limitations that come with this heightened return timetable.

Aaron Rodgers to Derwin James on November 6th:

"Give me a few weeks." #TakeFlight pic.twitter.com/4LHozucM9Q

— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) November 17, 2023

Something to consider before betting, however, is that the Jets are 4-5 on the season and could be out of the playoff hunt by the time Rodgers returns. Would the veteran simply be better sitting out and healing fully for next season if there’s nothing left to play for?

The latest NFL Playoff odds show that the Jets have +500 odds to make the NFL Playoffs (16.7% implied chance). They also have approximately the 10th-hardest remaining NFL strength of schedule according to several sources. This prop isn’t worth throwing serious money on, but given Rodgers’ determination to return, it’s worth a sprinkle.

 

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